Informace o publikaci

The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics

Autoři

GRIC Zuzana EHRENBERGEROVÁ Dominika HODULA Martin

Rok publikování 2022
Druh Článek v odborném periodiku
Časopis / Zdroj Journal of Financial Stability
Fakulta / Pracoviště MU

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

Citace
www https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S157230892200002X?via%3Dihub
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.100973
Klíčová slova Consumer loans;Consumer survey;Expectations;Optimism;Sentiment
Přiložené soubory
Popis We examine whether household sentiment can explain fluctuations in newly issued consumer loans. We construct a novel measure of household sentiment using detailed data from the harmonized consumer surveys conducted in European countries. We differentiate between rational sentiment, which mimics dynamics in macroeconomic fundamentals, and irrational sentiment, which proxies households’ optimism/pessimism on top of their rationally sourced beliefs. We show that shocks to the sentiment of households do have a measurable impact on growth of consumer loans. Specifically, we assert a significantly positive role of irrational sentiment on top of the economic fundamentals identified in the literature. Moreover, a closer examination reveals that the studied relationship is not symmetric over the business cycle — the effect of irrational sentiment is present only in periods in which a country’s output is well above its potential.

Používáte starou verzi internetového prohlížeče. Doporučujeme aktualizovat Váš prohlížeč na nejnovější verzi.

Další info