Publication details

Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems : How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?


NEMČOK Miroslav ŠEDO Jakub

Year of publication 2018
Type Article in Periodical
Magazine / Source World Political Science
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Social Studies

Web článek
Keywords electoral systems; measurement tool; Seat Product Model; size of deviation; theoretical expectations
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Description The article criticises current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d=log[Ns/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product (Taagepera, Rein (2007b) Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.
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