Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems : How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?
|Year of publication||2018|
|Type||Article in Periodical|
|Magazine / Source||World Political Science|
|MU Faculty or unit|
|Keywords||electoral systems; measurement tool; Seat Product Model; size of deviation; theoretical expectations|
|Description||The article criticises current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d=log[Ns/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product (Taagepera, Rein (2007b) Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.|