Publication details

Open-sources v predikcii ozbrojených konfliktov a ich využitie v systémoch včasného varovania

Title in English Open-sources use in early warning and prediction of armed conflicts


Year of publication 2020
Type Article in Proceedings
Conference Národná a medzinárodná bezpečnosť 2020 : zbornik prispevkov z 11 medzinárodnej vedeckej konferencie
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Social Studies

Web sborník
Keywords conflict prediction; early warning; open-source intelligence
Attached files
Description Research into prediction and prevention of armed conflict has come a long way in the past decades yet still remains understudied and underutilized by practitioners in defense fields. The accessibility and open-source nature of many new available systems offers relevant input into both short and long-term planning. The article offers a structured analysis of existing Early Warning System (EWS) generations to assess the viability and utility of modern prediction and EWSs – based on open source data and methods - to varied stakeholders across the domestic security apparatus and defense forces. Compared to previous generations and single-source EWSs, composite or combined EWSs offer up-todate open-source outputs applicable, among a vast variety of areas, in security and defense planning
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