Publication details

Scenáre v predikcii a prevencii konfliktov : adaptácia trendovej dopadovej analýzy

Title in English Scenarions in conflict prediction and prevention : Trend impact analysis adaptation


Year of publication 2020
Type Article in Proceedings
Conference Národná a medzinárodná bezpečnosť 2020 : zbornik prispevkov z 11 medzinárodnej vedeckej konferencie
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Social Studies

Web sborník
Keywords conflict prediction; scenario building; trend impact analysis; QCA
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Description Scenario-building methods are widely employed to assist prediction and planning across a broad field of applications. However, conflict prediction and prevention planning has predominantly relied on extrapolation techniques and long-term trend assessments by experts because of key disadvantages of scenarios - high number of possible results and assignment of probabilities. To address those, numerous techniques for scenarios reduction have been designed. The paper proposes an adaptation of one of them - Trend Impact Analysis (TIA). Proposed adaptation combines qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and TIA to achieve systematic reduction of relevant scenarios by assigning probabilities and impact to individual scenarios. The application is illustrated on a set of 316 cases in 68 countries. The results show that combination of methods reduces the number of probable scenarios and increases the precision of predictions necessary for effective analysis and conflict prevention.
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