Publication details




Year of publication 2021
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Science

Description Our model is based on a mechanistic compartmental approach of the SEIR model. The main novel concept is using a moving ascertainment rate estimate computed from data of hospitalized subjects (using a proportion of cases not caught before hospital admission), so it estimates the observed part of the epidemic and the undetected absent infected. We have developed an extended ZSEIAR model that includes also unknown dynamics in the affected clusters. Optimization, which according to real data estimates the size of the affected clusters, makes it possible not to distinguish seasonality, the degree of influence of government measures, or changes in people's behavior caused by fear or disinformation. We submit our predictions to ECDC forecast hub as well as to the web Czech Monitoring, Analysis and Management of Epidemic Situations
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