Informace o publikaci
SCORE2 and a derived model based on traditional risk factors in predicting cardiovascular disease mortality: 18-year follow-up of the Polish cohort participating in the HAPIEE study
| Autoři | |
|---|---|
| Rok publikování | 2026 |
| Druh | Recenzovaný odborný článek |
| Časopis / Zdroj | POLISH ARCHIVES OF INTERNAL MEDICINE-POLSKIE ARCHIWUM MEDYCYNY WEWNETRZNEJ |
| Fakulta / Pracoviště MU | |
| Citace | |
| www | https://www.mp.pl/paim/issue/article/17219/ |
| Doi | https://doi.org/10.20452/pamw.17219 |
| Klíčová slova | calibration; cardiovascular risk; discrimination; prediction models; SCORE2 |
| Přiložené soubory | |
| Popis | INTRODUCTION Accurate risk prediction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) is crucial for personalized preventive medicine. OBJECTIVES The study aimed to evaluate the effect of traditional risk factors on CVD mortality, and to validate the prognostic performance of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) model for the prediction of 18 -year risk of CVD death. PATIENTS AND METHODS Our cohort study included 6780 residents of Krak & oacute;w (54% women), free of CVD and diabetes at baseline, recruited between 2002 and 2005. Mean (SD) baseline age was 57.2 (6.9) years for men and 56.6 (6.8) years for women. RESULTS In 50 246 and 62 906 person -years of follow -up in men and women, respectively, cumulative CVD mortality was 9% in men and 5.2% in women, with competing (non -CVD) mortality of 19.2% and 12%, respectively. Smoking and hypertension were strongly associated with CVD mortality, whereas as- sociations with total cholesterol (TC) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL -C) levels were weaker. A newly-derived model including age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, TC, and HDL -C achieved Harrell C index of 0.693 in men and 0.757 in women. The model including SCORE2 as a continuous variable showed similar discrimination (Harrell C index of 0.718 in men and 0.754 in women), while SCORE2 categories demonstrated poorer predictive performance (Harrell C index of 0.589 and 0.676, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Smoking and elevated blood pressure were confirmed as major long -term predictors of CVD mortality. The prognostic performance of SCORE2 as a continuous measure was good and compa- rable to the derived prediction model including age and traditional risk factors. However, the predictive accuracy of SCORE2 categories was lower, particularly in men. |