Publication details

SEIAR model with ascertainment rate estimate



Year of publication 2021
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Science

Description A model based on a mechanistic compartmental approach, where some parameters are taken from literature, some parameters are estimated from an anonymized dataset of confirmed subjects. It estimates moving ascertainment rate using data of hospitalized subjects (using a proportion of cases not caught before admission to hospital), so it estimates not only the observed part of the epidemic but also the undetected absent infected. The model incorporates transmission rate estimate dependence on mobility data and immunization after vaccination and optimizes affected clusters' size to estimate all exposed individuals using the moving ascertainment rate estimate. To model deaths, we incorporated fixed time delay from positivity report to death estimated from data.
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