Publication details
Zdroje domácností a demografická odolnost : dynamika krátkodobých fertilitních záměrů v ČR v letech 2020-2022
| Title in English | Household Resources and Demographic Resilience : The Dynamics of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in the Czech Republic, 2020–2022 |
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| Authors | |
| Year of publication | 2026 |
| Type | Appeared in Conference without Proceedings |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
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| Description | In this paper we show how household resources (income, SES) structured women's short-term fertility intentions in the Czech Republic between 2020 and 2022. We draw on data from the first wave of the Czech GGS survey (locally also known as "The Contemporary Czech Family Survey)" fielded from November 2020 to July 2022. This unusually long fieldwork period was imposed by external circumstances. While such a situation would normally be viewed as a methodological liability, it can also be exploited creatively: by partitioning the dataset into subpopulations according to the phase of data collection and applying the methodological design known as the "unexpected event during survey design," the data can be used to describe the dynamics of a given social phenomenon. We fit ordinal logistic regression models in which the year of data collection enters as one of the covariates and fertility intentions serve as the dependent variable. By interacting income and education with year, we show how short-term fertility intentions shifted under multiple concurrent external pressures and stressors (COVID-19, high inflation, the war in Ukraine, etc.) across subpopulations defined by household income (quartiles) and respondents' education. We further examine the extent to which the 2021 tax reform (the abolition of the so-called "super-gross wage") shielded households from these external pressures. Our findings show that, overall, fertility intentions declined across all groups during the period under study, with the steepest drop in the most resource-poor households. Only in the highest income group did the decline come with a delay (not until 2022); this slower response can be attributed precisely to the 2021 tax reform, which for that group offset the general decline in real incomes. In 2022, fertility intentions ticked slightly upward relative to 2021, but did not return to their 2020 level. |
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