Publication details
Will we witness an upturn in European fertility in the near future?
| Authors | |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2008 |
| Type | Chapter of a book |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Description | Fertility in many European countries is not only low but very low and in some even lowest low. What fertility levels are going to prevail in near future? Firstly, some indicators of the fertility climate are presented. The study shows that a country's actual level of fertility correlates to people's attitudes on how fertility should be dealt with on a societal level. Secondly, levels of expected feretility, so called hypothetical completed fertility (HCF), are calculated on the basis of the information on individually-experssed intentions in the IPPAS dayabase. The structure of the HCF indicator is analysed, together with its interrelation with the value-of-children indicator. Multinomial regression is performed to find the net effects of factors which we regard as relevant to expected fertility. Our results lead us to some speculative ideas. First, it seems to us that we recorded hints of a possible end of lowest low fertility. Second, we are inclined to believe that we found indicators which entitle us to express our assumption that Europe is moving to a two-speed fertility area. While fertility levels in former Eastern European countries like Czech Republic seem to be recovering (as the postponement effect is being abandoned), German speaking countries seem to move into another transition: from mediate to low fertility. The question is, howevever, whether the expectations will be realized? Our results are more or less scenarios of the future. Whether they become reality will depend on conditions on the family policy context, but also on the European labour market, the availability of (part-time) jobs, the gender equity system, changes in family values, congruency between partners. Alleviating the burden for young mothers is the necessary precondition for women to realize their fertility intentions. |
| Related projects: |