Publication details

Estimating NAIRU in Small Open Economies: Models with Adaptive and Rational Expectations

Authors

NĚMEC Daniel VAŠÍČEK Osvald

Year of publication 2008
Type Appeared in Conference without Proceedings
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Citation
Description This paper estimates the NAIRU and output gap in two small open economies (Czech Republic and New Zealand) in a Bayesian framework. The estimates of these unobserved states are made using two models: simple hysteretic model with adaptive expectations and dynamic (non-hysteretic) rational expectations model. Hysteretic model assumes a well known "law of motion" of the equilibrium unemployment. The results show that the hysteresis is a significant phenomenon in the Czech economy. On the other hand, effective and credible inflation targeting monetary policy may cause a false indication of the hysteresis as the estimates for the New Zealand economy show. We estimated three sets of the paths which are in accordance with the natural rate hypothesis, hysteresis hypothesis, and the theory of NAIRU. Bayesian inference allows us to decide which trajectory is the most probable. This may lower the uncertainty related to NAIRU estimation.
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