Informace o projektu
The Impact of Digital Technology on Fiscal Illusion: Evidence from Estonia

The rapid expansion of digital governance has altered citizens' interactions with taxation and public expenditure; however, its impact on tax understanding and preferences for tax instruments is still inadequately comprehended. My dissertation investigates the impact of citizen-oriented digital fiscal instruments—such as Estonia’s e-Tax/e-MTA platform, pre-filled tax returns, and budget/open-data portals—on perceived transparency, the mitigation of tax misperceptions, and their subsequent influence on the traditional fiscal-illusion gap between indirect (VAT) and direct (income) taxation. The literature emphasizes the significance of salience and usability in shaping taxpayer behavior; however, a gap exists in connecting routine interactions with digital interfaces to specific, policy-relevant decisions regarding the methods of generating additional revenue.
The project utilizes a succinct convergent mixed-methods design. An online survey lasting 5–7 minutes, targeting approximately N≈200 adults in Estonia (available in Estonian and English), assesses digital tool utilization, perceived transparency (via concise usability items), a succinct misperception index (encompassing factual knowledge and a calibrated self-assessment discrepancy), and an explicit revenue-equivalent forced choice between increasing VAT or personal income tax (with “cut spending” noted for robustness). Simultaneously, 5–10 semi-structured interviews with officials from the Estonian Tax and Customs Board and the Ministry of Finance will record design decisions aimed at enhancing salience (e.g., pre-filled totals, plain-language summaries), usage analytics, and enduring points of confusion. The strands are individually analyzed and subsequently integrated into a unified display to evaluate convergence, complementarity, or dissonance. Inference is characterized by micro-level analysis and associative relationships, incorporating pre-registered metrics and transparent reporting of uncertainty.
The results will guide the design and communication of fiscal platforms, providing practical recommendations for Estonia and other small open economies aiming to increase salience, reduce fiscal illusion, and secure informed public support for sustainable, equitable tax mixes.