Informace o publikaci
Analyzing the Risk Factors of Student Dropout in Sport Science Programs: A Longitudinal Study Using Survival Analysis
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| Rok publikování | 2025 |
| Druh | Další prezentace na konferencích |
| Citace | |
| Popis | Background: Despite growing interest in student retention, little is known about the timing and predictors of dropout in sport and exercise science higher education. Prior research rarely considers time-to-event dynamics or domain-specific risk profiles. Identifying when and for whom dropout risk is greatest is essential to improve completion rates and equity. Objectives: This study examined dropout probability over time and identified demographic, educational, and academic factors associated with dropout risk among sport science students. Methods: A retrospective cohort design analyzed administrative data from 3,177 students admitted between 2013 and 2018 at the Faculty of Sports Studies, Masaryk University. Dropout was defined as non-completion or failure to graduate. Survival analysis techniques were applied: Kaplan–Meier estimates assessed survival probabilities, the Peto–Peto test compared groups, and Cox proportional hazards regression quantified covariate effects using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 1,180 students (37.1%) did not complete their degree. Median time to dropout exceeded standard program length, at 116.5% in Bachelor’s and 175.5% in Master’s cohorts. GPA was the strongest predictor: students with lower performance (GPA 2.48–4.00) were up to 10.1 times more likely to drop out than high achievers (GPA 1.00–1.99). Female students had a 32% lower risk than males (HR = 0.68, CI = 0.59–0.77). Educational background mattered: graduates of technical secondary schools had 36% higher risk than grammar school graduates (HR = 1.36). Delayed transition to university (>4 years post–high school) increased dropout probability. Study characteristics were also influential. Part-time students were at higher risk than full-time peers—25.7% in BSc and 35.3% in MSc programmes. Field of study significantly shaped outcomes: Physiotherapy, Regeneration and Nutrition in Sport, and Special Education for Security Forces showed reduced risks compared with Sports Management, while MSc Applied Kinesiology carried a 62% higher risk (HR = 1.62). In MSc programmes, later admission years (2015–2018) were linked to higher dropout risk compared with 2013 entrants. Conclusions: Time-to-event modelling highlighted GPA, study mode, field of specialization, and year of admission as key predictors of dropout in sport science higher education. These findings provide actionable insights for designing targeted interventions to support academically vulnerable subgroups and enhance student retention. |