Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

• Autoři: SALMANTON-GARCÍA Jon; WIPFLER Pauline; LECKLER Janina; NAUCLÉR Pontus; MALLON Patrick W; BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN Patricia C J L; HEINZ-JOSEPH Schmitt; BETHE Ullrich; OLESEN Ole F; STEWART Fiona A; ALBUS Kerstin; CORNELY Oliver A; BUSCH Martin; SEIFERT Ulrike; WIDMER Andreas; NAGAO Miki; RELLO Jordi; TODOROVA Tatina; CVILJEVIĆ Sabina; HEATH Christopher H; JANČORIENE Ligita; FISCHER Thea Koelsen; ORTH Hans Martin; JOHANSEN Isik Somuncu; DOYMAZ Mehmet; TRAGIANNIDIS Athanasios; LÖSCHER Thomas; JIN-FU Xu; HUSA Petr; OTEO José Antonio; ISSACK Mohammad I; ZEITLINGER Markus; GRAND Roger Le; ZDZIARSKI Przemysław; DEMIRKAN Fatih; AMADOR Paloma Merino; GARCÍA-LOZANO Tomás; CAO Qing; VÁZQUEZ Lourdes; CAEIRO Juan Pablo; HERMANS Peter; NAHRWAR Shahroch; AVSAR Korkut; KUMAR Deepak; FERNÁNDEZ Norma; MARDANI Masoud; SEGAL Esther; PAN Angelo; GKENTZI Despoina; GIOULA Georgia; CORTÉS Jorge Alberto; OLIVEIRA Joaquim; DAMME Pierre van; ZAILI Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd; ANTINORI Spinello; ZABLOCKIENE Birute; PAPAZISIS Georgios; ANEKE Chioma Inyang; VALERIO Maricela; MCCONKEY Samuel; AUJAYEB Avinash; AZZINI Anna Maria; ROGANOVIĆ Jelena; MOHN Kristin Greve-Isdahl; KREMSNER Peter; GKRANIA-KLOTSAS Effrossyni; CORZO Dora; KHANNA Nina; SMIATACZ Tomasz; SCHEITHAUER Simone; MERELLI Maria; KLEMPA Boris; VR?OVAC Radovan; RUGGIERO Antonio; CHAUDHARY Pankaj; MAQUERA-AFARAY Julio; EKKELENKAMP Miquel; JINDRA Pavel; PANTIĆ Nikola; GUERRA Gemma Jiménez; WEISS Guenter; ROOHI Behrad; ARGYROPOULOS Christos D; SILFVERDAL Sven Aprne; PRAET Jens van; BAL Zumrut Sahbudak; KANJ Souha; YOUNG Barnaby; PANA Zoi Dorothea; ROILIDES Emmanuel; STEARNS Stephen C; WAUTERS Joost; BANO Jesús Rodríguez; PLETZ Mathias W; TRAVAR Maja; KÜHN Steven; RIERA Fernando; CORNELY Daniel; LAURA Vlad Jeni; KOEHLER Philipp; ELEY Brian; NAIR Pravin K; CIESEK Sandra; OLARU Ioana Diana; MARQUES Laura; PONTALI Emanuele; NAUNHEIM Alexandra; LIEB Adrian; GERHARD Markus; FAROOQI Joveria Qais; TURTLE Lance; MÉNDEZ Gustavo Adolfo; COX Rebecca Jane; GOODMAN Nigel; CACECA Billie; PEMÁN Javier; DAWOOD Halima; ASKLING Helena Hervius; FOMSGAARD Anders; HERNÁNDEZ Alejandra Calderón; STAEHELIN Cornelia; CHIA-YING Liu; ICARDI Giancarlo; CASTAGNOLA Elio; SALZER Helmut J F; LUNDGREN Jens; JAVADLI Samir; FORGHIERI Fabio
• Rok publikování: 2024
• Druh: Článek v odborném periodiku
• Časopis / Zdroj: TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE
• Fakulta / Pracoviště MU: Lékařská fakulta
• www: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369
• Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676
• Klíčová slova: Disease X; Ebola virus; Infectious disease; Influenza viruses; Pandemic; SARS-CoV; SARS-CoV-2; WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics
• Popis: Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.